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IHS CERA is pleased to announce that the North American Power, North American Gas and Global Oil Integrated Roundtable will be taking place in San Francisco on November 3rd and 4th.

North American Electric Power

Despite the economic recovery in North America, most power markets will remain well-supplied for the coming several years. With little urgency to build new generation capacity, industry participants could misread the signals and assume the power industry is in for a few quiet years. But undercurrents of a potentially important change are running through the sector.

At this session, IHS CERA will discuss the moves afoot that could have important long-term strategic implications for industry stakeholders, and the key issues facing the power sector:

• Power Business Outlook: Undercurrents of Change. With the slowdown in Federal efforts towards cap-and-trade policies and the setback in power demand from the recession, it may appear that the power industry is set for a period of little change. But under the apparent quiet, forces are under way that could auger in important changes for the US power sector. Vigorous Federal efforts to transform the operations of the power grid are now stirring debate and controversy. The outcome of the debate among Federal regulators and legislators, state commissions, and utility and other industry players will determine winners and losers for the years to come, and could fundamentally re-shape the power system of the United States. At this session we will also discuss power demand, fuel and power prices, supply choices, and the generation mix.   

• Focus on Western Power Markets.  Market fundamentals including supply demand, price outlooks, and new transmission capacity and its effects will be discussed in this session. What is the outlook for mandated investment in green power? Where will transmission capacity be built? Where are the near-term investment opportunities?

• Dynamic Power Pricing: Early Results Begin to Come In. Most retail electric customers pay electricity rates that do not vary across the time of day, and therefore provide no incentive to reduce power demand during peak times. Residential customers, in particular, have long been insulated from volatile electricity prices; and in fact the stated mission of some state commissions is to maintain stable prices. However, many states are now beginning to experiment with dynamic pricing schemes such as time-of-use pricing and critical peak pricing. What do early results of these pilot programs indicate for customer price elasticity? What are the political and regulatory hurdles to these programs and how are they being managed? What are the implications for utility investment in advanced metering infrastructure, or “smart meters”?  

The roundtable will be conducted in an interactive format, and we invite you to participate in the discussion.

Global Oil

What is next for the oil industry and market? Oil prices have been trending in a relatively stable range for much of this year, but at the same time a number of key questions have arisen that could fundamentally alter the competitive landscape. At the autumn 2010 IHS CERA Global Oil Roundtables, we will address a number of these issues, including:

• Oil price outlook. Amid a large surplus of production capacity and inventories, what is keeping long-term price expectations elevated—and thus providing support to short term prices. What is keeping the market from dropping to $40?

• What is the outlook for deepwater E&P post-Macondo? To what degree will the oil well blowout in the US Gulf of Mexico change the pace and speed of deep water E&P? Is it a one-off delay or more long-lasting—and what will be the global impact?

• Is “Tight Oil” the next shale gale?  A wide price differential between oil and gas is leading to more investment in “tight oil”, particularly in North America. “Tight Oil” includes shale rocks, and other fine-grained tight rocks. These plays contain liquid hydrocarbons, and typically light oils. Is this a niche opportunity or something bigger?

• When will downstream margins improve? Since the  “Golden Age” of refining from 2004-08 came crashing down, refined product margins have been generally weak and more than 1.6 mbd of refining capacity has been idled. When will the market experience a cyclical upturn?

North American Gas

Despite a hot summer, the North American natural gas market has avoided a significant price spike and has continued to build a strong storage position. The reason? The Shale Gale continues, with ample and still growing domestic supplies easily managing the summer heat. As the Shale Gale moves beyond upstart status and toward becoming the new supply reality for the North American market, structural changes are inevitable. The North American Natural Gas Roundtable will

• Review the current fundamental situation, including IHS CERA’s current fundamental outlook

• Address key structural issues raised by the Shale Gale, such as changing basis relationships, new pipeline additions, the potential for LNG exports, the relationship between gas and coal, and even the potential for a resurgence in long-term contracts

CERA Members

• Participation at a Roundtable is a function of the terms of the CERA/client contract. Contact CERA Registration for information regarding eligibility and fees.
• For seats in excess of contract eligibility - Cost: US$750 per participant per Roundtable

• Limited space; subject to availability. Cost: US$1,500 per participant per Roundtable