Speakers
Jone-Lin Wang Managing Director and Group Head IHS CERA (Chair)	Patricia DiOrio Director IHS CERA
Marie N. Fagan Senior Director IHS CERA	Mark Hutchinson Senior Director IHS CERA
Fabien Roques Director IHS CERA	Xizhou Zhou Associate Director IHS CERA

Philippe Joubert, Executive Vice President of Alstom, Global Energy Partner of CERAWeek 2010, opened the final session of the week by remarking on how encouraged he was to see a strong theme of fuel and technology diversity in this year's conference. He commented, "Finally the idea of a single silver technology bullet is dead."

Jone-Lin Wang, IHS CERA Managing Director, Global Power Group, was joined by other IHS CERA power team experts: Marie Fagan, Senior Director and head of IHS CERA's North American Power Advisory Service; Mark Hutchinson, Senior Director leading Asian and Middle East power research; Fabien Roques, Director of IHS CERA's European Power Advisory Service; Patricia DiOrio, Director and Generation Technology expert; and Xizhou Zhou, Associate specializing in China. Participants offered their views on the key power themes discussed at CERAWeek and their relevance in shaping IHS CERA's global and regional outlooks.

Dr. Wang led by highlighting how, in many ways, "the power sector is the integrator of both the economy and all fuels." Multispeed recovery processes around the world are translating into varied impacts on power demand growth. With regard to this year's unofficial CERAWeek theme of "unconventional gas," the power sector is exhibiting caution rather than enthusiasm, weary of past experiences with fuel price volatility.

As was highlighted in this morning's Carbon Capture and Sequestration Breakfast Panel, neither uncertainty over climate policy nor the economic downturn nor lower gas prices have prevented companies from continuing to invest in technology. To Ms. DiOrio, "Technology is progressing full steam ahead." In the United States a key silver lining of the financial crisis has been the dramatic boost in the funding that energy technologies received and are continuing to receive as part the government's stimulus package.

Next Dr. Wang turned to IHS CERA's regional power experts. According to Mr. Roques, the economic downturn will have "long-lasting effects in Europe," especially on power demand. Over the longer term he sees the center of gravity for new build opportunities shifting to southern and Eastern Europe. Renewables are expected to account for greater than 50 percent of overall new capacity additions throughout the next five to ten years. And while last year's Copenhagen conference was met largely with disappointment in Europe, climate change policies nonetheless continue to play a central role in shaping the power sector.

From Mr. Hutchinson's perspective the Great Recession was "a very different crisis" than Asia's last crisis in the 1990s. For example China is experiencing a very strong economic recovery, and that's boosting industrial demand for electricity, which historically has accounted for 70-80 percent of total demand. In China, Mr. Zhou noted, there is a growing desire to diversify the fuel mix. Hydropower and renewables are being added to the grid at a record pace. And while gas has played little role to date in the power sector, that's expected to change with tighter environmental regulations, a declining load factor, and the need to back up intermittent renewables.

In North America 2009 registered the greatest decline in power demand since the Great Depression. Though power demand in 2010 is expected to grow at a rate of 2.8 percent, it will hardly make up for all the ground lost. Specifically, Dr. Fagan noted that it will take until 2012 before we again reach the electricity consumption levels of 2007. Uncertainty surrounding the shape and timing of US federal climate policy has increased, not decreased, in the past year. Whatever shape the ultimate bill takes, IHS CERA believes that it will have to include something for everyone, including cap-and-trade, renewables mandates, and targeted policies for other clean energy technologies. As for the "shale gale," Dr. Fagan noted that the North American power sector is coming to the party, and if it is a good party, the power sector might even stick around for a while.