Speakers
Daniel Yergin Chairman IHS CERA (Chair)	David Ignatius Columnist and Associate Editor Washington Post; Author; Former Executive Editor of the International Herald Tribune
David Gergen Senior Political Analyst CNN; Harvard University Professor; Presidential Advisor

The Wednesday night dinner opened with a toast from Philippe Joubert, Executive Vice President of Alstom, the Global Energy Partner of CERAWeek 2010. After dinner IHS CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin held a discussion with two renowned journalists and political commentators--David Gergen, a Harvard professor and former advisor to Presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton; and David Ignatius, a columnist and associate editor for the Washington Post.

Dr. Yergin began the conversation by asking, "What is the tone in Washington?" His guests responded that politics is dysfunctional. There is a sense of pessimism about the future and a disconnect between the political system in Washington and the rest of the country. Mr. Gergen explained, "We're good at responding when the wolf is at the door. We're not good at responding to the termites in the basement." In other words, Americans are good at responding to emergency situations such as the 9/11 attacks or the financial crisis, but very bad at dealing with chronic problems such as education and health care.

Mr. Ignatius agreed, pointing to a long-term decline in the ability of government to solve basic problems. He cited the issue of immigration, about which President George W. Bush cared deeply but was unable to bring the two political parties together to address. The modern media are a big part of the problem. Today's media "tell you that what you think is right. It doesn't challenge your views." He referred to the Internet as an "Anger Accelerator." He observed that the American public wants more and more services from the government but is unwilling to pay for them.

Both speakers give the current Administration high marks for its handling of the Wall Street panic and financial crisis of a year ago, but fault it for not staking out firmer positions on health care, financial restructuring, and climate change. Mr. Gergen believes the Administration is trying to accomplish too much at once and creating too much uncertainty in the process.

The discussion turned to foreign affairs. Both speakers believe that the tide has turned for the better in Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. They remarked that President Barack Obama's foreign policy team is much stronger than the domestic policy team. Indeed, Mr. Gergen asserted that Defense Secretary Robert Gates is "the best Cabinet secretary of the past 50 years." Both speakers give the military high marks, but Mr. Gergen suggested that "we have a defense policy for the world rather than a foreign policy."

Dr. Yergin next asked how the situation with Iran might unfold in the next year or two. Mr. Ignatius characterized the confrontation with Iran as analogous to "the Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion" in that we are heading slowly toward a dangerous confrontation. He told the audience that at Secretary Hilary Rodham Clinton's request, the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia had recently visited Beijing to tell the Chinese that an Iranian nuclear capability would jeopardize China's energy stability and that Saudi Arabia would guarantee China's oil supplies if China would take a harder line against Iran.

Mr. Gergen brought up the possibility of a "renegade action" by the Israelis, but said that among the US military there is very little appetite for a military conflict with Iran. Mr. Ignatius suggested that ultimately Iran will settle for the Japan model--with all the ingredients for a bomb, but without the bomb itself.

Returning to domestic politics, Dr. Yergin asked who would be the Republican presidential candidate in 2012. Mr. Gergen thinks Mitt Romney could be a serious contender. He believes that the Republicans could have a big success in the midterm elections but that they must develop more policy ideas, and not just oppose Democratic policies, if they are to win elections and govern successfully.

In response to Dr. Yergin's final question as to what could reverse the political dysfunction, Mr. Ignatius said that the American people are looking to Washington for governance. The populist revolt among rank-and-file Republicans conflicts with the need for the Republican Party to say, "We are prepared to govern." Mr. Gergen suggested that American ingenuity and innovation are among our greatest strengths and will be critical in developing needed solutions to many of our problems, including education and health care. He voiced great confidence in the promise of the new generation of returning military officers, the volunteers in Teach for America, and other young people motivated by the desire to serve.