Speakers
Michael Stoppard Managing Director IHS CERA (Chair)	Tom Walters President, Gas and Power Marketing ExxonMobil
Hamad Rashid Al Mohannadi Managing Director- CEO RasGas Company Limited	Philippe Boisseau President Gas & Power Total
Jean-François Cirelli Vice Chairman and President GDF Suez

In his welcome on Wednesday, CERAWeek Gas Day, IHS CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin referred to last year's uncertainty and this year's gradual recovery. In IHS Global Insight's assessment of indicators, "the clear majority point to continuing improvement." Dr. Yergin thanked the CERAWeek delegates for contributing their presence and sharing their ideas for the future.

IHS CERA Managing Director Michael Stoppard set the stage for the Global Gas Plenary by noting ever greater gas volumes, the now global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, and shale gas development. Future prospects remain surrounded by uncertainty in markets and policies. He called global gas pricing "a mosaic," for which "the value of natural gas to society has never been higher, given its green potential, but its value relative to oil has never been lower."

Jean-Francois Cirelli, Vice Chairman and President, GDF SUEZ, outlined the company's positions as an example of its diversity strategy and gas's flexibility: first in the United States through utilities, markets, and LNG; in Europe as a gas purchaser, distributor, and storage operator; and as an LNG terminal operator worldwide. GDF SUEZ believes Europe will continue to rely on long-term contracts with traditional suppliers into the future. This security of supply is reinforced by increasing volumes of reserves. Moreover, natural gas is "a bridge to a greener economy; some in the industry say it is a destination fuel." With only 15 percent of the carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour of coal generation, combined-cycle gas turbines are quick and cheap to build and efficient to operate. The problem, Mr. Cirelli stressed, is image, with gas linked to coal's carbon emissions, despite its fractional profile. He called on the industry actively to improve the public's and policymakers' views of gas, to make sure gas is not treated like coal in policy decisions, and to promote its environmental benefits. With the uncertainties of no carbon policy in the United States and Europe's carbon cost debates, the industry faces challenges. Natural gas, however, is flexible and abundant, can be stored, and is "the energy of choice to drive a transition toward a low-carbon economy," he concluded. Through innovation and new products to improve gas's image, the industry can meet the opportunities in both the OECD countries and in emerging economies.

Tom Walters, President, Gas and Power Marketing, ExxonMobil, reminded delegates that the industry has always faced economic cycles that change activity levels and alter plans. He promoted a positive outlook longer term, also noting that policy development is deeply intertwined with the industry's prospects. By 2030 global energy demand will be 50 percent higher than today. Mr. Walters discussed gas's benefits, the impact of technology on resource development, and policy implications for natural gas. Although efficiency improvements will keep gas demand growth below gross domestic product (GDP) growth, gas plays many roles. The major driver is power generation, accounting for more than half of gas's growth. Its lower emissions profile and flexibility enable gas to balance future power demand, Mr. Walters said. New supplies will be needed to meet, for example, the US supply gap of 65 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. Unconventionals could satisfy more than 50 percent of US demand by 2030, he said, but liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline imports will still be required. In Europe carbon initiatives underpin the shift to gas, despite declining domestic supplies; unconventional again, particularly in Germany, could be a source. In Asia as power generation grows with development, LNG could meet approximately one third of regional demand in 2030. Mr. Walters detailed potential carbon mitigation policies and costs; agreeing that coal will feel the impact more, he promoted the rapid and economical development of gas plants as an advantage. Technology will advance all energy sources, including gas, he concluded, describing ExxonMobil's efforts in commercializing gas through drilling, carbon capture, and LNG technological innovations. Such advances "will remain a key differentiator in the years to come."

Hamad Rashid Al Mohannadi, Managing Director- CEO, RasGas Company Limited, said RasGas has continued to develop its vast gas resources for LNG as part of the future's energy portfolio, and he agreed that the long-term outlook for energy and gas remains one of growth. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), natural gas demand will constitute 21 percent of overall energy demand by 2030, with regional variations, driven by rising populations, rising living standards, and environmental concerns. He stressed the essential contribution from the reliable supply of LNG. RasGas in ten years has increased its LNG production tenfold and now supplies 13 countries in Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Production is 36.3 million metric tons per year, and RasGas continues development, recently starting up trains 6 and 7 to provide more supply. IEA figures indicate that more than 80 percent of demand growth to 2030 will come from non-OECD, particularly from domestic and export developments in China, India, and Brazil, and including a steady rise in industrial and commercial uses. The implications are very positive for gas, Mr. Al Mohannadi noted, in particular when combined with LNG growth. LNG can satisfy seasonal demand variations quickly and, even after meeting demand in the Middle East, can provide long-term supplies globally. LNG is becoming a global market for both short- and long-term customers through contract flexibility. Mr. Al Mohannadi said that RasGas is working across the full value chain to provide the diversity and flexibility of LNG and concluded by mentioning the Golden Pass terminal in Texas expected to come online this autumn.

Philippe Boisseau, President Gas & Power, Total, said "The world of gas has been put upside down by reduced demand and large oversupply," owing largely to the many new LNG projects. Gas has "a brilliant future" but must manage these current challenges. Higher gas demand at coal's expense is offset by lower European gas demand, although reduced power demand affects coal more, particularly in US and UK generation. Current gas production was planned with Henry Hub prices around $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and crude at $40 per barrel. Recent prices of $7 per MMBtu did little to slow drilling, although production is now dropping slightly. Despite a potential oversupply of 180 billion cubic meters (Bcm), Mr. Boisseau defined approximately 225 Bcm of flexibility through the power demand (gas versus coal) and gas supply markets (long-term contracts, US production, and spot pricing), saying that gas could become a seller's market by 2014 and tight again by 2020. Gas's real challenge is meeting China's future demand, which he called "consistently underestimated." By 2020 China could meet 35 percent of its domestic demand through imports, with LNG terminal capacity reaching 52 million metric tons. But "2020 is really tomorrow morning for LNG," Mr. Boisseau said, and Total projections suggest that more gas supply will be needed, even with unconventional gas factored in. The industry must continue investing during this price bubble. "Predicting the future is risky, so we make sure to have the tools to remain flexible to capture the value," he concluded.